etfmsolutions: March 2019

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Delta Neutral Hits a Home Run....03.23.2019

A great couple days for the delta neutral models QLD/QID and SCHB/SH. Friday was as picture perfect a delta neutral day as could be imagined. A slow start out of the gate gradually built momentum throughout the day as we were limit stopped out of QLD and SCHB and then reaped some nice gains in QID and SH into the close as S3 pivot support levels held firm. So, if we can make the big money with the Qs model why even bother with the S&P based SCHB/SH model?
the answer is that SPY and QQQ do sometimes diverge and the SCHB/SH model is a nice safe jumping off point for traders still trying the understand the delta neutral strategy while still outperforming a SPY based directional trade and with reduced drawdown risk.

Monday, March 11, 2019

Delta Neutral Update ....03.11.2019

A good day for the QLD/QID delta neutral setup. Markets reversed from Sunday night's red open to a Monday morning blowout for the NAZ. The DOW was held back by a 13% swoon in Boeing stock but the Qs were the momentum leaders from the open to the close.
Note that the "best odds" value for QLD has fallen to a new multiyear low of 1.1...completely contradicting its beta value of 2.

Saturday, March 2, 2019

PONZO Updates for March....02.02.2019

Here are the PONZO forecasts for SPY, QQQ and TLT...our major focus indices. The outlook has actually changed significantly since our last look with the SPY and QQQ decidedly bullish and TLT decidedly bearish. Fixed income has been faltering recently and the forecast for TLT suggests that continued weakness is the likely path.
The talking heads are screaming "CASH" with a warning that mid March will see a new opening for the bears. Actually...nobody knows and the motives of the prognosticators are always suspect since no one ever fesses up when they make a lousy call. That's why we trade strictly data driven strategies based on volatility and mean reversion triggers. Recent economic data has been weak with retail suffering major hits but the trickle down effect has not yet set it. When it does...watch out below.

Commentary and Updates

Mosaic Solutions commentary is typically published daily as time permits and market action warrants.
Posts feature Mosaic model updates including delta neutral stops, VIXEN directional trades and PONZO forecasts.

NOTE: Posted risk exposure indicators, signals and metrics apply to Mosaic models only. They are not directly correlated with price movement in the major market indices and can not be used to forecast directional changes in those instruments.
Each Mosaic model is a unique blend of risk factors and must be treated accordingly.

TRENDX is a proprietary Mosaic market signal that blends volume, RSI, momentum and rate of change.

ETF Mosaic Solutions and the editors of Mosaic Solutions are neither an investment advisory service nor registered investment advisers or broker-dealers and do not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies readers should buy or sell for themselves.
This site and related software products are for research and educational purposes only, and nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities, or to provide individual investment advice.

Investing is risky and past performance, whether actual or tested, is no guarantee of future results.
Any quantitatively derived allocations referenced herein should only be starting points for conducting your own research.

You are responsible for your own trading decisions and resultant gains or losses. When in doubt, please seek professional guidance from a registered adviser who can respond to your personal needs and risk profile.