Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Modest Rally...what's next?...2.4.14

WOW!!!!. The VIX lost 11% today on a relief rally.  Not real impressive volume and in the early hours of the day it wasn't at all clear that the rally would hold.  Note the intraday XIV action...
XIV has now declined to an intersection point with SPY...that's bullish
Nevertheless...here we are with SPY showing a sub zero momentum closing...not bullish.
Deja vu previous posts....new lows tend to be rested especially after vicious declines like Monday so the yellow caution flag is still flying.
Note that utilities (XLU) were the VEGA loser today....which is actually bullish given our many previous posts on the role of XLU as a bear hedge.
We're left with mixed closing signals...at best.