etfmsolutions: Ponzo Trend Turns Bearish....03.14.15

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Ponzo Trend Turns Bearish....03.14.15

Friday saw a revisit of Thursday lows and an ultimate closing in the red. With the ongoing rise of the dollar (UUP) the large cap multinationals are suffering badly and it was interesting to hear one of the market gurus who foresaw the dollar's rise several months ago to forecast that the dollar could extend its run FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS!!!. Of course that's just one opinion, but a pretty informed one.
In that context here's a look at the current PONZO Time Machine and the VDX chart.
Note that the 18 month projection for the SPY now has the odds clearly skewed to the downside...a scenario we have not seen before. The risk profile also continues to expand, adding to the uncertainty factor.
VDX is more upbeat now being in a BUY mode but this is based strictly on technicals and we need to keep in mind that oversold conditions may get worse before they get better.

Commentary and Updates

Mosaic Solutions commentary is typically published daily as time permits and market action warrants.
Posts feature Mosaic model updates including delta neutral stops, VIXEN directional trades and PONZO forecasts.

NOTE: Posted risk exposure indicators, signals and metrics apply to Mosaic models only. They are not directly correlated with price movement in the major market indices and can not be used to forecast directional changes in those instruments.
Each Mosaic model is a unique blend of risk factors and must be treated accordingly.

TRENDX is a proprietary Mosaic market signal that blends volume, RSI, momentum and rate of change.

ETF Mosaic Solutions and the editors of Mosaic Solutions are neither an investment advisory service nor registered investment advisers or broker-dealers and do not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies readers should buy or sell for themselves.
This site and related software products are for research and educational purposes only, and nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities, or to provide individual investment advice.

Investing is risky and past performance, whether actual or tested, is no guarantee of future results.
Any quantitatively derived allocations referenced herein should only be starting points for conducting your own research.

You are responsible for your own trading decisions and resultant gains or losses. When in doubt, please seek professional guidance from a registered adviser who can respond to your personal needs and risk profile.