etfmsolutions: Chasing Our Tail....04.29.15

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Chasing Our Tail....04.29.15

The suspected underlying weakness from yesterday's sub-pivot action picked up strength today with many of the big caps getting a heavy hit. One of the most surprising (and disappointing) developments for some of the "smartest guys in the room" is the plunge in the dollar (UUP), which was on a bull run until recently.....and which is now plummeting with no clear support threshold in sight. The Euro (FXE) meanwhile was a powerhouse of strength and the new M3 FX model already had it as a #1 pick so we were able to book profits on that move.
The M3 models are once again at odds with one another and the first trading day of the month is unfortunately Friday, which has an inherent bearish skew so the reliability of the technical signals is a complete mishmash.
An interesting aspect of the UUP daily bar chart below (also applies to FXE) is the nice parallel alignment of the Ergodic and ADX indicators....a situation we do not see in the SPY or QQQ. The immediate implication is that the currencies are actually less subject to HFT manipulation than the indices ETFs.....a thesis that flies in the face of the commonly held assumption that the currencies are more subject to manipulation than stocks or ETFs.

Commentary and Updates

Mosaic Solutions commentary is typically published daily as time permits and market action warrants.
Posts feature Mosaic model updates including delta neutral stops, VIXEN directional trades and PONZO forecasts.

NOTE: Posted risk exposure indicators, signals and metrics apply to Mosaic models only. They are not directly correlated with price movement in the major market indices and can not be used to forecast directional changes in those instruments.
Each Mosaic model is a unique blend of risk factors and must be treated accordingly.

TRENDX is a proprietary Mosaic market signal that blends volume, RSI, momentum and rate of change.

ETF Mosaic Solutions and the editors of Mosaic Solutions are neither an investment advisory service nor registered investment advisers or broker-dealers and do not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies readers should buy or sell for themselves.
This site and related software products are for research and educational purposes only, and nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities, or to provide individual investment advice.

Investing is risky and past performance, whether actual or tested, is no guarantee of future results.
Any quantitatively derived allocations referenced herein should only be starting points for conducting your own research.

You are responsible for your own trading decisions and resultant gains or losses. When in doubt, please seek professional guidance from a registered adviser who can respond to your personal needs and risk profile.