etfmsolutions: Looking for Mr. Goodbar...05.23.15

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Looking for Mr. Goodbar...05.23.15

Here's a variety of weekend stuff including the daily Ergodic/ADX chart showing the HFT dominance on Friday, the current Ponzo SPY Forecast and VDX mosaic for SPY and XIV and the SPY TrendX. I hope you had a chance to read the Schwab piece on performance metrics....the whole CAPE concept puts the current P?E status in a different light.
Going forward next week (Monday's not a trading day) the various graphics project a neutral to down odds scenario and I'm a bit concerned about the SPY TrendX rolling over. We are setting up a narrow band (wedge) consolidation on decreasing volume (see the VDX mosaic chart). Narrow band patterns tend to behave like coiled snakes and when the bands are broken it tends to be in a dramatic fashion. That doesn't help us a lot right now other than to watch the stops and be ready for a likely pop in volatility. As I mentioned in Friday's M3 closing comment, the XIV is extremely overbought by most metrics....more so than what is suggested by the attached VDX mosaic.

Commentary and Updates

Mosaic Solutions commentary is typically published daily as time permits and market action warrants.
Posts feature Mosaic model updates including delta neutral stops, VIXEN directional trades and PONZO forecasts.

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