Please be aware that the current market milieu is HIGHLY MANIPULATED and may not necessarily react to technical analysis is the "normal" manner. If time and space permitted I could post many, many charts of Thursday's action to show how .05% volume moves resulted in 1% price moves and that's not the way we expect price to move. Nevertheless, caution is the current watchword although the bulls have an historical edge for the next 3 weeks. The Thursday crash of TLT was overdue but skewed out of proportion to similar fixed income volatility.
Best advice? Trade small.
