PONZO Updates Reverse Course....06.01.16

This week's PONZO updates have the SPY in a dramatically different forecast than last week, which was wildly bullish.  It may be the seasonality issue kicking in or other outlier issues but the current view is clearly not bullish.  VIX maintains a narrow range forecast with an upside bias (don't forget the November 20 target) and TLT looks neutral short term with a slight skew to the upside longer term.  Current market dynamics are focused on the FED...June or July for a rate hike versus an increasing number of credible reports that the economy may not be doing so great after all. Its often difficult to see through the smoke and mirrors of economic reports which are frequently constructively edited to cast the report in a favorable light and situations like the US/Saudi treasury deal mentioned yesterday have been front run for years by those in the know.
All of which makes finding a reliable and consistent trading edge more and more problematic