On the flipside, the Trader's Outlook is moderately bearish.
The whole historical odds perspective provided by the Trader's Almanac has proven to be highly unreliable from past May until the present. Clearly the markets are responding to a new set of catalysts and worries to create such a serious disconnect with past seasonal timing correlations.
We've harped continually on the need to be in the correct paradigm phase...either momentum, consolidating or mean reversion ....and later next week we'll post some recent LQB research on that theme.
Note that both SPY and TLT have VDI+/- lines at a crossover while VIX is double down. This may explain in part the current trend of rising call prices and falling put prices.
