Note the VDI +/- divergence in all three charts with TLT the least dramatic.
The situation with TLT was forecast last week with multiple fundamental and technical indicators arguing for a reversal off an apparent bottoming pattern and although the positive momentum has been muted over the past few days it has been consistent.
The failure of the Santa Claus rally is typically followed by continued selling into the start of the new year so this is probably not a good time to initiate any new longer term positions unless they are well hedged. The Barron's roundtable and other notable market gurus have a shared consensus that the SPY outlook is bullish with 230 being a year end likely target. That's actually below the recent Ponzo forecast but we'll just continue to monitor the price/volatility action and try to trade accordingly..
