This week's Ponzo updates have SPY with a new, wider, volatility scenario band. The forecast odds are almost equally balanced but Ponzo is suggesting the trend is likely to break out...up or down, with some vengeance. What we are not seeing is a comparable mixed scenario for the VIX...just continued cruising along the 11s until something happens to pop us higher. The TLT outlook is almost exactly the same as last week,,,,a slow churn up and all the technicals currently support that view.