TLT has devolved over the past few weeks from being profoundly bullish to the current short term bearish forecast. Regular readers know TLT is one of my favorite trading vehicles and the stable narrow channel price range we witnessed in the past is now above the upper resistance band and the odds now favor a retracement back to the range midline or the bottom band. A butterfly option strategy still looks attractive for TLT although waiting until we get a pullback to the midline is necessary before deploying new setups.
Trader's Outlook is cautiously neutral. Keep in mind TO's outlook is focused on strictly technical indicators. If we consider the current multitude of geopolitical risk factors, current turmoil between Congress and POTUS, stock outflow patterns, questionable market momentum metrics and the FED's failure to follow a forward looking economic policy....then the wisdom of risk off investing is not a wise at this time.
