etfmsolutions: QLD Flat for Monday....03.8.18

Sunday, March 18, 2018

QLD Flat for Monday....03.8.18

Another good day for our QLD trade as we sat in cash while QLD eroded during Friday's session, (and closed down another .4% in after hours trading). driven largely by (surprising) Amazon weakness. What started out looking like a missed opportunity at the open turned out to be a rather precocious forecast by both the VIVEN and PVOL models.
This is both the joy and the misery of being a purely technical trader relying on derivative algorithms to trigger your trading status...vested or cash. On the one hand it's easy to just go with the signal and believe that past performance will hold up for the near term while on the other hand it easy to fret about the signal reliability when other market metrics and technical indicators are suggesting that the current trade position is wrong. That's one reason we tend to temper the signals with a daily commentary to factor in the potential effect of these outlier dynamics like earnings, the FED, and general price manipulation either intentionally or unintentionally driven by news alerts.
For Monday the models are flat QLD while the Qs are technically oversold.

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