My friends over at the World Bank must have been feeling sorry for me and the conflicted M3 signals so they cut their outlook for he global economy, now projecting 2.8% growth in lieu of the previous forecast of 3.2%. US growth projections were also dropped from 2.8 to 2.1 %. Since the markets are typically looking 6 months ahead it's not clear that this announcement actually precipitated today's drop but M3 went to cash at the open as XIV dropped like a stone and the previous short term ALERT was validated.
I hope to roll out the real time M3 signals within the next couple weeks to make capturing these midday reversals much more transparent.