This week's VDX updates suggest SPY in an oversold condition and TLT approaching overbought. Finding a trend
has been difficult lately as earnings reports have created the usual surge of
volatility associated with earnings uncertainty. The VIX has been particularly squirrely, as noted in the Bloomberg article link above, and, discounting significant negative news, is likely to retrace back to the 14s within the next 2 weeks as the Sell in May VIX premium pop mentioned earlier in this week's
Barron's post is adjusted back to a neutral skew.
Going forward we'll continue to explore less traditional technical signal parameters such as the PCL asnd ATR in an effort to constraint risk exposure in the face of deteriorating global economics.
Monday we'll present the latest performance metric studies of the ATR/PCL indicators, which now include a limit stop function.
There's still considerable work to compete before these platforms are ready for prime time but the prelim results are more than encouraging.
