Sell in May?.....Maybe...05.02.16

There's an old trader's adage to Sell in May developed by Yale Hirsch of the Traders Almanac.which studied the long term effect of only being vested in the markets Nov 1 to April 30 each year and being in cash the rest of the time. How's that worked out over the past 65 years?  Pretty well.
Here are a couple divergent articles on that effect, one from Schwab and one from Barron's Striking Price. Just something to factor into your risk considerations in what may prove to be a difficult summer trading environment.
Meanwhile. here's a PV price volatility study of TLT highlighting the PCL indicator and it shows how well violations of the 1% PCL threshold presage drops in TLT price. I haven't marked every one of the 1% violations, otherwise the chart would look pretty busy but every single 1% violation has in fact been immediately followed by a drop in TLT price at least for 1 or 2 days. In some cases of higher threshold violations TLT price dips extended for a week or more.