Now siting on a technical support ledge the QLD is in a precarious position. The fact that the mean regression model (MR) is out preforming the trend following and pivot based momentum models suggests dithering weakness that may or may not get resolved to the upside.
Also...keep in mind that the real life PVOL model is actually up 14% higher than posted metrics as we have the applied the nuances capital preservation tools of never allowing an opening gain to become an intraday loss and taking advantage of buying/selling opportunities in the after hours market. (see April 7th post).
From a risk/reward viewpoint the cash position MR model looks like the best odds trade for now.