A Few Bumps in the Road...07.30.15

After yesterday's ALL CLEAR signal issued by the FED we might have expected a bit more strength than we saw today but there's still a lot of money on the sidelines and technical traders may be biding their time to play the high bullish odds of tomorrow's close through Monday. Meanwhile, the overriding VDX technicals show there's still some upside left on SPY and XIV although we should point out that when XIV pulls back its generally in a dramatic fashion.   Once that VDI+ turns down we don't want to be Long XIV.  Our market neutral model using SPY, XLU and SH has been doing nicely with only a 1% total drawdown over the past 2 years, the lowest DD of any of our 6 models.