GSPC Ponzo...07.23.15

This is the GSPC or S&P500 Ponzo chart for which we have data going back 50 years.  Compare these forecasts with the previous SPY ETF forecasts for which we have 25 years of data.  The GSPC is presenting a much more optimistic risk profile for the rest of the year and it will be interesting to see which format, GSPC or SPY, delivers a truer picture of the future...which unfortunately we will not have the ability to know until 5 months away.  The disparity in these two risk profiles is not intended to confuse the reader but simply to provide an alternate view of what's possible. Keep in mind that bear markets (with the exception of the late 2008 plunge) tend to occur when there's nothing but good news and optimism.  On the other hand, we may have already passed that point and be in the initial phase of a larger retreat.  For now we'll just take it one day at a time and apply our models as appropriate.  M3 did give a nice exit signal to the short side for today's action and SPY has collapsed to below the S3 pivot 30 minutes before the close.