The 130 minute bar Bollinger Band indicates TLT is now in a rebound mode and the upside target is fairly well defined although we might see some backfilling along the way.
The M1 mean reversion mode provides a somewhat better idea of how TLT moves sporadically and how it responds particularly well to 3 day pullbacks (the basis for the mean reversion study).
Compare the results of the mean reversion study to a study which holds TLT full time but exits on days when the limit stop fires and then assumes a new position at the end of the day.
In the former case over 2 years TLT is held for 227 days and yields 39% with a 5.5% drawdown.
In the later case over 2 years TLT is held 498 days for a yield of 53% with a 6.5% drawdown.
In the <30 day timeframe the mean reversion mode outperforms and this is the trend we have seen over the past 6 months on a day to day basis.
