Sunday, October 15, 2017

Ponzo Update and Trader's Outlook.....10.15.17

This week's updated forecasts reveal no divergence from last week's posts. 
The TLT consolidation model using butterflies and/or iron condors still looks like the best odds situation as we plunge forward into earnings season and the unknown market perils of Iran and NOKO. QQQ maintains the highest positive scenario skew while SPY and TLT are running 50/50 bearish/bullish into the year's end
Trader's Outlook is modestly bullish, based strictly on a technical trend following perspective.



Monday, October 9, 2017

PONZO Updates and Trader's Outlook....10.09.17

Following last week's surge in SPY the new Ponzo forecast has reverted back to a bullish skew, improving modestly on last week's bearish outlook.
QQQ is an almost dead on repeat of last week's bullish outlook. 
TLT has settled into a slightly bearish channel and the 124/125 butterfly still looks like a good bet. 
Trader's Outlook is bullish for the week based on strong economic data and expectations for good earnings reports, which kick off this week.



Sunday, October 1, 2017

Ponzo Updates & Trader's Outlook..10.01.17

The big change in this week's Ponzo forecasts is a significant deterioration in SPY.  A general trading rule is "don't short new highs", which was the case this week and is now supported by the current technical view of Trader's Outlook .  Once again consider what the Ponzo charts actually show...the odds that history will repeat itself based on a technical analysis of what happened in the past 25 weeks over the life of the stock or ETF.  Dynamic exigent factors are constantly in play so the Ponzo outlooks might be considered of marginal utility.  However, market patterns have proven to be remarkably consistent over time and the fact remains that the longer term Ponzo forecasts for SPY have been dead on since last October.
This week's QQQ and TLT forecasts are essentially unchanged from last week, with TLT hitting the lower band of the 6 month linear regression channel (support) and now poised for a bounce..



Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Apple and Amazon Ponzo Updates....09.27.17

Following up on last week's Apple/Amazon pair trade idea using the Ponzo forecasts here are the latest updates.  Also included is an APPL chart with an AMZN overlay. Technical indicators are 10,20,50 SMAs and parabolics.  The entire tech sector looks ripe for a dead cat bounce ( in progress) followed by a trap door down to longer term support levels.
Over the last week APPL/AMZN have traded in tandem, both up and down  Wait for the divergence.


chart courtesy of Schwab SSEdge

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Ponzo Updates and Trader's Outlook....09.23.17

This week's Ponzo forecasts are little changed from last week.  SPY moved only a few pennies from last week and the Qs dropped $2 but the forecasts remain essentially unchanged although the longer term QQQ projected highs have declined a few dollars.  TLT remains a study in channel consolidation and still looks like a great butterfly/iron condor candidate although with the VIX in the 9s the premium payoffs are at historical lows.
The weekly Trader's Outlook is mildly bearish now that earnings season is mostly complete and traders are girding their loins for October's anticipated volatility surge and more potential threats from NOKO, and now Iran..
We'll review the Apple/Amazon ponzo charts on Wednesday.



Wednesday, September 20, 2017

APPLE and AMAZON Ponzo ALERTS........09.20.17

With today's swoon in AAPL we may be looking at a longer term trend in the making.
At the same time AMZN looks poised to jump forward in the aftermath of Harvey, Maria et al...and we're not done yet with hurricane season.
Assuming no NOKO nukes or other apocalyptic scenarios these are the risk forecasts for APPL and AMZN as of Monday.  So far the Apple is playing out according to forecast.
Current odds favor a Long AMZN, short AAPL pair trade.
For those unfamiliar with the PONZO models, check here.


Saturday, September 16, 2017

Ponzo Updates and Trader's Outlook.....09.16.17

Forecasts are looking bullish...in fact wildly so for both SPY and QQQ, while TLT has hunkered down back into the sweet spot of our longer term buying channel (butterflies and iron condors).
VIX (not shown) has once again settled back into the 10s and the bulk of current premiums reflect a miserable risk/reward ratio.
If you believe the markets are uber overbought at this point just wait a few months for a truly frothy top that exceeds virtually all expectations from top market gurus at the beginning of 2017.
Trader's Outlook is optimistically bullish.
Hey!  What could go wrong?