Tuesday, January 23, 2018

XIV flat for Wednesday....01.23.18

We got stopped out of the XIV trade today shortly after the open and tomorrow the signal is in cash.
Intra day and close to open volatility is clearly picking up as witnessed by the new "best bet" odds value of 1.4%.....a 40% increase from yesterday's 1.0 value.
TrendX and the Paradigm Alert are now both negative and in sync so cash looks like a safe position until we are even evidence of a high probability trade.

Monday, January 22, 2018

XIV Long for Tuesday....01.22.18

Senate agreement to fund the govt, at least for the short term, has the market at new highs.
XIV is long for Tuesday.
Note "best bet" stop has increased to 1.0%

Friday, January 19, 2018

XIV flat for Monday...01.19.18

Despite the very real possibility of a govt. shutdown the major indices managed to close in the green.
XIV had a wide 3 point swing, ending the day in the green at close to the daily high.

Note that the "best bet" limit stop odds have risen back to .9%,  up from the .7% lull we saw at the beginning of the week. Our Trendx signal has just crossed to the downside and the Paradigm Alert is negative so a flat, risk ON posture looks like the safe and sane situation for Monday. 

Thursday, January 18, 2018

XIV flat for Friday....01.18.18

A wild $ 6.5 point swing in XIV stopped us out early for a .7% loss, which quickly widened and then in the afternoon session we actually saw XIV turn green and run for a bit before heading south again late afternoon to finish near flat.  Everything now rides on the odds for a shutdown but any significant selloff will likely be met with a relief rally...and more.
XIV is flat for Friday.

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

XIV vested for Thursday

A another nice signal for XIV today and the suggestion to enter 30 minutes after the open saved an otherwise $3 loss.  Earnings  are the big catalyst for the surge and expectations are high so odds are for more gains near term.

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

XIV vested for Wednesday...01.16.18

A tremendous call by our model at Friday's close kept us safe from the 5% swoon in XIV today. Keep in mind that the trend following model uses a combination of momentum and volatility parameters to generate our daily signal so simple momentum is often not a valid criterion to remain vested.  Such was the case with Friday's close.
For tomorrow the signal is vested but we may expect selling to extend into the open after a 300+ swing to the downside today so a bit of caution is advised either by scaling back trade size or simply waiting for the open +30 minutes before initiating any new trades.
Today's action put a serious dent in the unstopped benchmark XIV metrics and brought us almost on par for the past 250 trading days albeit with a considerably lower net % drawdown and only limited position exposure.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

XIV Flat for Monday...01.14.18

Another volatile day Friday with XIV closing very slightly in the red.  For Monday the signal is in cash.  Note that the TrendX Paradigm signal is in sync and slightly bullish.  Also note that XIV volatility has declined somewhat and that the current Best Odds limit stop is down to .7% from the previous .9% level where it has ridden since the first of the year.