Thursday, May 24, 2018

QLD Mixed for Friday, SSO flat....05.24.18

Same as yesterday....trend following models are divergent with VIXEN flat and PVOL long while the mean regression model is long.  SSO Vixen is in cash. (see yesterday's post re: SSO)
Late breaking news that NOKO now wants to meet for summit talks will likely goose the markets higher..at least into the open tomorrow.


Wednesday, May 23, 2018

QLD Mixed for Thursday + new SSO signal...05.23.18

For Thursday the QLD trend following models are long while the mean regression models are in cash.  Being a FED day volatility was in evidence (as typical) and the close followed the time worn FED pattern of being in the green (85% last 2 years). Any gains due to short covering today should be evident tomorrow.
We're adding a signal for SSO (ProShares SPY x2 Ultra Bullish ETF) using only the trend following Vixen signal. This now gives us a leveraged view of both the S&P and the Qs.



Tuesday, May 22, 2018

QLD Mixed for Wednesday....05.22.18

We have a repeat of yesterday's signals with divergence between the VIXEN and PVOL trend following models.  We exited our QLD position today as it crossed from positive to negative, thereby saving us from a modest .3% loss.
The "best bet" limit stop continues to erode...now down to only 1%, having declined .3% in one day...which is unusual given the current negative trend in the pivot.
Current market movers...yield curve, China trade, NOKO denuke.



Monday, May 21, 2018

QLD Mixed for Tuesday....05.21.18

For Tuesday our trend following models are split Long/cash, while the mean regression model is Long. The mean regression model has produced the highest odds over the pat year even though the net returns have equaled our goto model..the VIXEN.
It's all about the news...........................



Sunday, May 20, 2018

QLD Mixed for Monday...05.20.18

Our consensus cash signal for Friday saved us from a closing loss and, on reflection, it's always a wonder when we see these consensus signals using 2 diametrically opposed trading methodologies like trend following and mean regression.
For Monday the trend following models are flat while the mean regression model is long.

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Thursday, May 17, 2018

QLD flat for Friday...05.17.18

All models are flat for Friday.  Following our default risk management plan we exited QLD today as it crossed over from green to red mod day, saving us from a 1% loss for the day. Hence our results for today are actually 1% higher.. which trickles up through the time metrics.
Volatility looks to be crossing up through the RSQ trend line in the ATR and OC charts.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

QLD Mixed for Thursday....05.16.18

Trend following signals are mixed for Thursday while mean regression MR model is long.  The TrendX is looking good for trend followers as the "best bet" limit stop" has dropped to 1.3 %, a substantial reduction from the 2.0 levels we saw only 2 weeks ago.