Saturday, June 15, 2019

PONZO Forecasts for Gold and Silver....06.15.2019

Following a number of high profile bullish forecasts for gold in the upcoming months I thouhgt it might be instructive to look at the PONZO charts for both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV), since silver tends to follow gold's momentum and can often be used as a confirmation signal, albeit it a lagging one. The mot recent PONZO forecast for gold was dead on so let's see how this one pan's out.
Per PONZO gold looks a bit overbought right now but the long term prospects for both gold and silver look positive. the dip?

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Delta Neutral Update....05.29.2019

Here's a look at the current QLD/QID delta neutral model.  Note that we've set the trigger threshold up to 2%...reflecting the current pop in volatility.  We've missed a few big move days due to the out of the gate surge limit stops...meaning the model simply didn't trigger on those days. preservation is our number one goal and in that respect the DN model has performed well and shown admirable performance and safety relative to a straight directional model such as our benchmark VIXEN momentum model shown below.

Monday, May 27, 2019

MoDX charts for QQQ and GLD.....05.27.2019

Here are a couple updates for the MoDX (directional momentum DMI+/ DMI-) charts using QQQ and GLD (gold ETF) for illustration.  GLD is pretty much a train wreck having gone basically nowhere as the talking heads have screamed BUY!!!! over the last year.  QQQ (NAZ100) on the other hand is oversold but as we have (painfully) learned in the past, thing that are oversold can often get even more oversold.
These are 30 day charts since my trading bias is strictly short term.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Delta Neutral Update....05.22.2019

With volatility on the uptick we are once again mining some nice gains in the delta neutral QQQ based model using QLD and its inverse QID.  The model produced little return in Aprils due to depressed volatility but since MAY 6th we've seen a sizable bump.  Patience is the name of the game when playing delta neutral along with attention to the rules that demand a quick position exit if intraday reversals trigger...of which we've seen several in May.
Note that our optimized limit stop % has risen to 2.6%.. a massive jump from April when it was riding at a sleepy all time low.
Both the Skew and the TrendX charts gave us a clear signal back on May 6th that things were about to change. 

Sunday, April 28, 2019

PONZO Updates for SPY and QQQ....04.28.2019

The new PONZO updates reflect an almost neutral short term outlook for the broader market.  The previous updates almost 6 weeks ago were dead on for PSY and QQQ but wrong for TLT which has shown considerable resilience in the face of the current bullish trend.....which is cautionary.
Best bets now are for some butterfly action although we are still id-earnings season so may be more prudent to wait a couple weeks before going too heavy...or simply scale it.

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Delta Neutral Update 04.25.2019

We haven't posted DN results for a while because we are in one of those extended lull periods where volatility has leveled off and intraday reversals are common.  Those are tough times to trade as we get stopped out of positions on a regular basis as opening gaps up or down get reversed during the course of the day so that the other side of the DN trade gets stopped out and we're left with little gains and often small losses as our trailing stops trigger.  What's interesting right now is that volatility appears to be on the upswing and if that happens with a vengeance then we'll be back in the money making mode.  For now we just play it one day at a time and enjoy the longer term gains.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Delta Neutral Hits a Home Run....03.23.2019

A great couple days for the delta neutral models QLD/QID  and SCHB/SH.  Friday was as picture perfect a delta neutral day as could be imagined. A slow start out of the gate gradually built momentum throughout the day as we were limit stopped out of QLD and SCHB and then reaped some nice gains in QID and SH into the close as S3 pivot support levels held firm.  So, if we can make the big money with the Qs model why even bother with the S&P based SCHB/SH model?
the answer is that SPY and QQQ do sometimes diverge and the SCHB/SH model is a nice safe jumping off point for traders still trying the understand the delta neutral strategy while still outperforming a SPY based directional trade and with reduced drawdown risk.