Sunday, March 18, 2018

QLD Flat for Monday....03.8.18

Another good day for our QLD trade as we sat in cash while QLD eroded during Friday's session, (and closed down another .4% in after hours trading). driven largely by (surprising) Amazon weakness. What started out looking like a missed opportunity at the open turned out to be a rather precocious forecast by both the VIVEN and PVOL models.
This is both the joy and the misery of being a purely technical trader relying on derivative algorithms to trigger your trading status...vested or cash.  On the one hand it's easy to just go with the signal and believe that past performance will hold up for the near term while on the other hand it easy to fret about the signal reliability when other market metrics and technical indicators are suggesting that the current trade position is wrong. That's one reason we tend to temper the signals with a daily commentary to factor in the potential effect of these outlier dynamics like earnings, the FED, and general price manipulation either intentionally or unintentionally driven by news alerts.
For Monday the models are flat QLD while the Qs are technically oversold.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

QLD Flat for Friday....03.15.18

Both VIXEN TF and PVOL models (as well as the MR..mean regression model) are flat for Friday.
Its all about news, news, news and news...what's fake, what's real?  Pick your poison.
From a tactical viewpoint our long standing recommendation to make closing signal trades in the after hours is working out well today as QLD is up .54% after hours as we close our standing long position from yesterday.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

QLD Long for Thursday....03.14.18

Pretty much same situation and cautionary comments as yesterday.  Downslope pivot chart is a bit worrisome and there are some clear pockets of weakness although the Qs continue to perform with the best resilience of the index generals.
Note slight upward recovery of the TrendX and Paradigm charts.
Not a time to go large.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

QLD signals Long for Wednesday but flat override....03.13.18

A positive opening today gradually eroded throughout the day to a negative close.
As a side note: in the current volatile intraday trading environment I always immediately enter a stop at net zero went the market opens in the green. While this sometimes results in a missed opportunity in multiple +.- swing days it does prevent any losses in such volatile days. (this is a conditional order and the limit stop set at the previous close for the position is cancelled when the fixed price stop fires.)
The signals for tomorrow are long but they violate our general of not taking vested positions when the TrendX stop has violated the trend and when the pivot line is downslope.  We may be surprised to the upside tomorrow but I prefer to remain on the safe side and sit in cash for now.
Note that volatility is once ahgain on the rise in the ATR and PCL charts

Monday, March 12, 2018

QLD 50% Long for Tuesday.....03.12.18

A somewhat iffy day today had my finger on the escape button for our long QLD but we ultimately held strong and maintained a green position into the close.
For Tuesday we have a mixed signal from the VIXEN (out) and PVOL (long) so net 50% long.
Later this week we'll look at the correlation of the QLD and the VXN (Nasdaq 100 volatility index).

Sunday, March 11, 2018

QLD Long for Monday....03.11.18.

That was just a great winner on Friday and although the markets are technically overbought both the VIXEN and PVOL are once again in a vested situation.

Thursday, March 8, 2018

QLD Long for Friday....03.08.18

We're eeking out small consistent gains on QLD but the composite signal has given us a nice safety buffer so far.  For Thursday the VIXEN has flashed a Long signal, so now in sync with the PVOL.
Volatility is once again picking up although the QLD ATR and PCL charts remain down slope, which is favorable to risk management on this issue.