Sunday, November 19, 2017

Ponzo Updates and Trader's Outlook....11.19.17

This week's updates have only modest weakness readings versus the past 2 weeks. 
As in the past, the TLT continues to be the narrow range, low risk money maker using option butterflies and iron condors.  The only downside to this winning strategy is the low premium returns reflective of the continuing low volatility levels.  Nevertheless, on a risk/reward basis this weekly options approach has seen 11 winners and 1 loss over the past 12 weeks.
Trader's Outlook is bullish on the trend but neutral on "cloudy" risk dynamics.

Monday, November 6, 2017

Ponzo Updates and Trader's Outlook...11.06.17

The SPY forecast is deteriorating per this week's Ponzo outlook while QQQ maintains a bullish bias and TLT climbs back into out butterfly channel.  As we move forward with a low volume, low volatility milieu (VIX hit 9.14 Friday) the primary trend remains neutral to bullish as the historically strongest months of the year kick in.
Tech continues to be the standout winner on above average volume, driven by the FANGs and semis.
Trader's Outlook maintains a bullish bias based on the number of new highs and the development of new overhead resistance in many of the indices.