Sunday, July 30, 2017

Ponzo Updates and Trader's Outlook for SPY, QQQ & TLT.......07.31.17

SPY and QQ finished the week only pennies off the previous week's close while TLT pulled back 2%.  The surprising  forecast this week is the Qs, which had been bullish, but which has now become almost hyperbolic in outlook.  While FANG and its outliers have continued to gain momentum recently this outlook looks like some kind of statistical anomaly rather than a realistic scenario in the next 5 months.  Of course these are just probability scenarios based on previous historical patterns and given the current frothy levels of the markets may not reflect likely outcomes but, it does provide some food for thought.
Trader's Outlook is net neutral for next week.....reflecting the longer term forecast for TLT which looks ripe for iron condor & butterfly positions..

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Ponzo Update and Traders Outlook..SPY, QQQ, TLT.....07.24.17

This week's Ponzo forecasts reveal a significant risk increase for SPY and QQQ while the prospects for TLT, which Ponzo turned bullish on last week, now show the greatest potential for longer term gains.  Summer months are historically weak performer, although that hasn't been the case in recent years.  As the yield curve flattens once again and macro economic fundamentals begin to deteriorate the possibilities for treasuries and composite bond ETFs like AGG look increasingly attractive.
The Trader's Outlook is modestly bullish as we roll into earnings season and increased expectations.
Trading volume has been running about 50-70% historical levels and periodic flash crashes in oil, the Euro, the dollar and various select stocks suggest volatility surges may confound stop orders as liquidity becomes thin and spreads widen.
It's hard to find any good risk/reward scenarios these days.

Monday, July 17, 2017

Ponzo Updates for SPY, QQQ & TLT....07.17.17

This week's updates have QQQ wildly bullish and TLT in a renewed bullish mode.   TLT has undergone a modest pullback recently and may be resuming its previous long term bullish pattern.
QQQ is the standout of the bunch as analysts' consensus favors FANG and its outliers as the GO TO favorites. Discounting the volatility of Tesla and Bitcoin (and the associated risk danger) QQQ valuations continue to frame well above long term benchmarks as the markets talking heads issue daily warnings on the coming market collapse.  Not a time to get heavily vested.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Ponzo Updates for SPY, QQQ and TLT...07.10.17

This week's Ponzo Updates have the SPY looking at an expanded trading range  (potential volatility) while the recent pop in QQQ has actually resulted in a narrowed lower volatility trading range outlook.  TLT, currently undergoing a pullback from severe overbought levels, has pulled back about $6 from recent highs and bears watching if it penetrated $ which point we would expect a potential bottoming pattern to develop and buying opportunities to develop.

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Ponzo Updates for SPY, QQQ and TLT....07.03.17

This week's Ponzo forecasts all suggest narrowing trading ranges for the next few months and the outlook for TLT has deteriorated from previous long term bullish views.
The forecasts are basically net neutral, favoring iron condor and butterfly setups for option traders.