Saturday, April 29, 2017

M6 Monday Market Outlook...04.29.17

First of the month approaches, which is bullish about 78% f the time. Govt. shutdown has been averted for a week, Le Pen odds look low (famous last words) while Kim-Jong-un is still mulling his odds. Trader's Outlook is bullish...but volatile.
M6 has a unique perspective on Monday's odds with both the momentum and mean reversion models pointing to market bullish positions...either SPY or QQQ. Last week's end of week AGG pick returned very modest green but turned out to be a safe and sane strategy in an otherwise risky milieu.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

M6 Market Outlook....04.27.17

Afterhours beats by AMZN and GOOG will probably goose the Qs upward at the open.  Otherwise, the threat of govt. shutdown and those pesky North Koreans continue to pose a potential VIX bomb.

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

M6 Market Outlook...04.26.17

After two days of one of the greatest short covering rallies in years and a tepid response to Trump's tax plan the markets sold off into the close leaving us with a bearish bias for the rest of the week.
The M6 momentum model has QQQ in a stopped position and the mean reversion model is favoring the low volatility composite bond ETF AGG as the best odds for tomorrow.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Market Outlook..04.25.17

M6 market outlook (momentum mode) is shown below.  The mean reversion mode is in a stopped mode so the current vested signal is QQQ.  Markets are extremely overbought as the VIX drops below 11 and VXX kisses 15, so volatility players are getting bullish and betting on a pullback.

Monday, April 24, 2017

SPY Ponzo Forecast.....04.24.17

This week's SPY outlook is actually more subdued than last week's although the outlier scenario for a major market collapse (widely hyped) has little support......unless Kim Jong-un really loses it.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Monday Forecast...04.21.17

The French election on Sunday will likely be the catalyst for next week's markets.  For now the outlook is bearish with M6 ranking AGG (aggregate bond ETF) with the highest positive odds for Monday....after a nice vested pick of XLU today, which performed well yesterday and today.
Trader's Outlook is modestly bearish.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Market Forecast 04.20.17

The M6 market momentum model continues to get stopped out by the pivot filter while the mean reversion model (below) has enjoyed a few vested signals in this technical challenged trading week.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Market Forecast 04.19.17

IBM is the big loser of the day on poor earnings with GS continuing to deteriorate. The brief green scene in the morning session turned decidedly bearish in the afternoon.  Internationals are all red.
Options expiration on Friday raises volatility skew in this high risk market environment.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Market Forecast ....-04.18.17

Key reversal day to the downside goosed by GS poor earnings report, bad housing starts and lowered GDP estimates.  Uncertainty factor on the rise. TLT is ripping the doors off.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Ponzo Updates....04.17.17

SPY and TLT forecasts remain bullish contrary to classic divergence behavior.  VIX looks to be trending lower, supporting the SPY bullish case.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

VDX Updates.....04.15.17

With mounting evidence that Trump got hoodwinked into bombing Syria over a false flag sarin gas attack political tensions with N. Korea, China and Russia continue to keep the VIX elevated and safe havens enjoying inflows. Earnings season in now in full bloom although expectations remain high there are a few warning signs that this season might be disappointing.
SPY is oversold, TLT is extremely overbought and VIX is elevated....although not significantly.
News will drive the markets next week and continue to do so until the geo-political situation cools.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Market Forecast....04.12.17

Bullish for TLT and XLU....................(XLU butterfly perfectly aligned).......

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Ponzo Updates...04.11.17

This week's forecast updates have SPY neutral, VIX narrow range and TLT modestly bullish...all short term as tensions in Syria, N. Korea, China, etc. The VIX blue line scenarios is what will happen if the syphilitic N. Korea leader decides to lose it completely .
It looked like a potential meltdown a few hours in today but buyers stepped in, albeit selectively. Keep eyes on QQQ...if it falters there could be more selling coming down.

Monday, April 10, 2017

VDX Updates

Continuing to consolidate as news surprises drive daily volatility.
Best looking chart of the bunch is TLT...still bullish (modestly)

Friday, April 7, 2017

Market Forecast.....04.07.17

Note >>  Set to the mean reversion mode. Better risk/reward ratio, somewhat lower net return.

Monday, April 3, 2017

Ponzo Updates...04.03.17

Changes for this week's Ponzo updates include a more bullish consensus signal for SPY and an increased range potential on VIX.  The TLT forecast remains bullish..slow and steady. New revelations confirming Obama spying on the Trump team, crashing auto sales (and prices). the increasing North Korean threat and the impending fight over Gorsuch may impact volatility this week ......and DN still looks like the safe path.
BTW...our XLU butterfly trade is playing out far.....

Sunday, April 2, 2017

VDX Updates Turn Neutral...04.02.17

This week's VDX charts all reflect neutral status.  This is in stark contrast to last week's charts when everything was overbought or oversold to the extreme.  The VDI+/- lines are in crossover status suggesting that the skew is near the zero line and we're likely to see some volatility surges this week.
Delta neutral is a safe way to play these odds as it's unclear if momentum or mean reversion will become the paradigm going forward short term,
Trader's Outlook is bullish but there are a number of caveats that may derail that path.;