Sunday, August 20, 2017

Ponzo Updates for SPY, QQQ & TLT + Trader's Outlook......08.20.17

This week's forecasts have changed only slightly from recent outlooks.  The SPY looks to be more susceptible to a pullback while the Qs remain bullish and TLT has adopted a wider range neutral stance. The instances of potential 5% + pullbacks have increased for SPY and QQQ.
An optimistic earnings season has managed to keep the markets in a buy the dip mood, BUT ...increasing tensions with China & NOKO internationally and a tide of anti-Trump attacks by the media may serve to destabilize an already tenuous political situation nationally.
Trader's Outlook has become cautious in anticipation of volatility rising....a reflection of the TLT forecast adjustment..



Saturday, August 12, 2017

Ponzo Updates for SPY, QQQ and TLT plus Trader's Outlook....08.12.17

This week's Ponzo updates reflect some divergence from recent forecasts.
We now have a black swan type scenario on SPY, not imminent but still looming as geo political tensions ramp up and increasingly expected volatility pops in the Fall pose a risk for vested positions.
QQQ looks slightly less optimistic than recent posts although the downturn last week really didn't impact the index significantly.  FANG stocks are increasingly at risk so keeping an eye on support levels in critical.
TLT has suddenly become significantly more bullish, moving out of its narrow range consolidation and despite numerous talking heads droning on about the impending collapse of the bond market.  
Trader's Outlook is bullish and reflects the obvious....bull trend still intact but increasing risk makes the whole investment game a precarious undertaking.
Thursday saw the biggest daily volume (and volatility) since February.  Friday's recovery was iffy both in terms of strength and volume with many likely holding their breath over the weekend waiting to see if NOKO is going to grace us with a nuclear winter or Yosemite delivers a blast to end civilization as we know it.  (readers in the Dakotas take heart....you've got good odds for survival....the rest of us are toast).



Sunday, August 6, 2017

Ponzo Updates for SPY, QQQ & TLT + Trader's Outlook.........08.06.17

This week's updates forecast a slightly more tepid outlook for SPY and QQQ while the TLT forecast remains firmly in the channel established 2 weeks ago. The historical bias for a summer sell off has so far failed to materialize as the VIX hovers at 10 and incremental new highs are reached.  The dollar has plunged below long term support and the low volume slog continues to create a risky trading environment with option premiums at dismally low levels and occasional flash crashes (due to a number of factors) scaring the bejesus out of risk adverse traders.
I've added a neutral range bracket (yellow) for all models set to one standard deviation.
This helps me set up option trading strategies like butterflies and/or iron condors easily.
Trader's Outlook is moderately bearish for next week.