SPY and TLT Ponzo Updates...05.30.17

We're approaching the last day of the month which will occur midweek and hence bullish odds are enhanced.   This week's Ponzo updates look very similar to last week's....strong bullish momentum for SPY and narrow range consolidation for TLT.
Yahoo data issues are still not resolved for the Mosaic models.  I've been in touch with 6 different   user groups that have been blindsided by the Yahoo issue and bottom line appears to be no more free data (no more free reliable data) and the cheapest option so far appears to be esignal real time at $55/month.

SPY and TLT Ponzo Updates...05.22.17

The YAHOO data stream remains DOA but we are still able to update the Ponzo forecasts on a limited basis.  As such, here are SPY and TLT....SPY suggesting a bullish momentum while TLT looks to be hunkering down to a narrow range low volatility scenario.....with the usual caveats in both cases that surprise geopolitical news could quickly derail any market momentum or stability.

ON HOLD......05.17.17

As part of the AOL+YHOO= OATH merger Yahoo has terminated the data strings (EOD and RT) that provided input to Ponzo, VDX and the M series models. As a result ,we are currently unable to update any of our toolbox until this issue is resolved. No advance notice was provided of the termination, leaving us in a scramble mode.  We're currently exploring new data provider options as it appears the new OATH strings will make updating our multi-input models problematic.
For now we're looking for an IT consultant who can facilitate the new data stream.
Mosaic users will be advised when we once again become operational.

M6 Tuesday Forecasts......05.15.17

Despite all the economic and geopolitical risk factors that continue to fester the markets managed
to confound short sellers as SPY blasted through 240 and most of the indices registered new highs.
It was a low volume run up but the A/D line was strong and solid.  Now we await Turnaround Tuesday to see if we get a follow through or pullback.
Meanwhile our World model continues to bank better gains than the US market model and .....heads up......both models have STOP Alerts turning down thereby warranting caution (EWZ is stopped).

M6 World Outlook, VDX Updates and More...05.14.17

The updated M6 World model has generated great returns recently, led by EWZ (Brazil).  For now this is our go to portfolio as the domestic M6 Market model is stuck in a churn and burn (commissions) mode. While US market momentum may have stalled the international markets appear to be in a rally mode so as long as stops are respected that looks like the better odds situation.
Trader's Outlook is bearish to neutral next week as we hit mid month and the Sell in May crowd has yet to decide whether to quit the game (bad choice last year) or hang in there.
The VDX updates have us in a potential mean reversion setup for a pop in SPY and a drop in TLT although it looks technically premature..

M6 Market Outlook for Friday....05.11.17

The M6 Market model remains in a STOPPED mode.  The M6 WORLD model is a bit more optimistic as we move into a likely Friday sell down.  Earnings are winding down, mostly with upside results (except retail) and we're currently on Alert for the next big news.....little of which recent news has had much of a negative effect on momentum.

M6 Market Outlook for Thursday....-5.10.17

The M6 Market model is signalling vested positions for QQQ in momentum and AGG in mean reversion, basically leaving us with a net neutral outlook.  As the US equity markets continue to frequently confound technical analysis I'm looking for alternate investment venues and in that light here's a look at a variation of the old World model, featuring just 6 ETFs the World covers the the SPY, the European largest 900 companies (EFA), global emerging markets (EEM), Russia (RSX), Brazil (EWZ) and China's nifty fifty (FXI). We're still playing with relative beta to establish appropriate limit stops but for now we're just using a 1% across the board baseline.