90 Day View.....8.31.14

Last day of the month so Tuesday "should" be bullish based on past history.
XIV hasn't clicked with the M3 rankings but we're still vested in SSO per the model.
I've attached a 90 view of M3 performance since the charts look somewhat different in this scale than the normal 30 day versions and provides just another way of looking at how the markets in general and M3 in particular are doing.

Feedback from my M3 beta testers has convinced me to add a few more tweaks to the program so access will continue to be free until Sept. 15th while those changes are scheduled to be complete..

Holding Pattern,,,....8.28.14

Another narrow range day with low volume.  Although it was a red day the losses were modest.
 XIV did suffer a bit of a decline so the STOP that fired yesterday did catch the change of pulse.

Calm Prevails, XIV Stopped....8.27.14

Low volume again, as expected.  XIV did falter today, hitting the STOP of 43.48 posted on the M3 site and the rankings algorithm has kicked XIV from the queue so that model is now in cash.
Otherwise, the dashboard is neutral as the markets digest the current overbought conditions.

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New Highs, BUT.......8.26.14

New highs on SPY but we saw XIV retreat on M3 and per the TrendX in the right side panel the markets are seriously overbought.  Note a new TrendX mini-chart that has been added to the daily M3 dashboard.
The chart only looks back 10 days but it shows one of the most reliable tells of market strength (in my experience), that is, a 3 day moving average of the SPY pivot (high+low+close/3) versus the current SPY closing price.
Note weakness in XLU today (Vega model)...typically bullish, but this may be something else.

SPY 200... FINALLY!!....8.25.14

Well, there it is....SPY 200...and holding.  Yeah, it was weak volume but,as mentioned previously with Labor Day approaching and everyone apparently in the mood to party we can expect low volume for the rest of the week and a probability skew to the upside despite the uber overbought nature of the markets.
M3 continues to keep us on the right side of the action but keep an eye on the posted money management stops for XIV and SPY if things do get dicey.  For now the dashboard is all green....first time in a while.

Hesitation at the Goal....8.24.14

Not all hands were on deck for the SPY's push to 200 so we'll have to postpone the celebration for a day or two but the 200 mark seems a distinct probability.  With light trading volume expected next week ahead of Labor Day it will be easier for market makers to drive momentum so we just need to be alert to the direction of the push.  For now M3 is still liking XIV but we're ready to hit the exit door if things turnaround.
There's a new look for M3 and a few changes to the algorithms that were developed last week during the independent testing.
At the bottom of this post the 2 year performance metrics and chart have been attached.  Subscriptions will go live Sept 1st but in the meantime ther free daily pre-close updates will be posted at the LOGIN tab.

SPY 200?...........8.21.14

It's been a while coming but SPY is just pennies away from the magic 200 number.  At the same time the SPY TrendX chart in the side panel shows SPY hitting longer term overhead resistance so we should be prepared for a possible pop and drop scenario tomorrow....which coincides with Friday's historical odds of being a distribution day.
The VIXEN charts show the gradual  buildup in SPY momentum over the past few days and the VEGA chart confirms that the move has been market wide and not necessarily sector driven.
XIV has shown some hesitancy over the past 2 days but M3 still has a bullish rankings profile.

There are a few new additions to the M3 platform and the launch date has been pushed to August 31st to allow time to incorporate these features as well as risk/reward improvements that were developed over the past few days of M3 testing by a large hedge fund.  This was an exciting opportunity to have the oversight of professional platform testing technology and expertise to which I would not normally have access and M3 will be a better product as a result..