M6 Monday Market Outlook...04.29.17

First of the month approaches, which is bullish about 78% f the time. Govt. shutdown has been averted for a week, Le Pen odds look low (famous last words) while Kim-Jong-un is still mulling his odds. Trader's Outlook is bullish...but volatile.
M6 has a unique perspective on Monday's odds with both the momentum and mean reversion models pointing to market bullish positions...either SPY or QQQ. Last week's end of week AGG pick returned very modest green but turned out to be a safe and sane strategy in an otherwise risky milieu.

M6 Market Outlook....04.27.17

Afterhours beats by AMZN and GOOG will probably goose the Qs upward at the open.  Otherwise, the threat of govt. shutdown and those pesky North Koreans continue to pose a potential VIX bomb.

M6 Market Outlook...04.26.17

After two days of one of the greatest short covering rallies in years and a tepid response to Trump's tax plan the markets sold off into the close leaving us with a bearish bias for the rest of the week.
The M6 momentum model has QQQ in a stopped position and the mean reversion model is favoring the low volatility composite bond ETF AGG as the best odds for tomorrow.

Market Outlook..04.25.17

M6 market outlook (momentum mode) is shown below.  The mean reversion mode is in a stopped mode so the current vested signal is QQQ.  Markets are extremely overbought as the VIX drops below 11 and VXX kisses 15, so volatility players are getting bullish and betting on a pullback.

SPY Ponzo Forecast.....04.24.17

This week's SPY outlook is actually more subdued than last week's although the outlier scenario for a major market collapse (widely hyped) has little support......unless Kim Jong-un really loses it.

Monday Forecast...04.21.17

The French election on Sunday will likely be the catalyst for next week's markets.  For now the outlook is bearish with M6 ranking AGG (aggregate bond ETF) with the highest positive odds for Monday....after a nice vested pick of XLU today, which performed well yesterday and today.
Trader's Outlook is modestly bearish.

Market Forecast 04.20.17

The M6 market momentum model continues to get stopped out by the pivot filter while the mean reversion model (below) has enjoyed a few vested signals in this technical challenged trading week.