Wednesday, April 17, 2013

T2 Default Update...4.17.13

The rankings are likely to change at the close based on today's downswoon.  Apple falls below $400, and the VIX is up 22% as the lunch hour ends.  It's been a wide ride for the VIX this week, up 28% on Monday, down 22% Tuesday and now up again to 17.04.
Earnings and associated guidance continue to drive the markets as bonds make incremental gains (note the TLT TrendX chart on the right. 

This may be a critical juncture....normally we would expect to see the bottom feeders jump in end of day to snap up perceived "bargains".  If we end on the lows of the day then we may suspect that more of same is to come.  Next overhead resistance on the VIX is 18.75.
The NYAD (NYSE advance/decline line) is currently at .22...bearish but not REALLY bearish.  Readings below .10 typically accompany bottom reversals, so short term traders should keep an eye on this number.

On the default T2 model we are seeing migration of TLT to #2 slot, while XLU (an historical safety net) is still showing strength.
Note that the equity line is below the P6 stop on both the 2 year and 6 month charts.
A time to be cautious with bullish positions.
Click on chart once to enlarge and clarify.