Saturday, April 16, 2016

VDX Updates and More...04.16.16

Over at Zero Hedge (a favorite site for years) it looks like the shorts rule the day. If he's right then it's best to gird your loins and prepare to hunker down with a heavy bond coat (we still like TLT's odds).
Before we look at the VDX updates here's a fascinating (to me) article on a Equinix (EQIX) server facility in NJ.  It may give you a perspective on what's really going on during the trading day with the robots and the institutions while you await confirmation of your 1000 share order.
Now to the VDXs>>>
The chart I always consider is the VDI +/- and TLT is the only one with a positive VDI divergence.
How do we reconcile both SPY and the VIX having downslope VDI+ readings even though the overbought/oversold charts are diametrically opposite? One clue may be the volume chart of SPY which is clearly on the wane.  We have no volume data for the VIX so a metric comparison is not possible. One other caution on the SPY...current price action is blow the RSQ line.
Although there is the camp arguing for a breakout to new SPY highs, or at least a quick pop to 210, the technical odds are not so supportive.
LQB shifted its focus to bonds and away from equities over a month ago and so far that decision has been a good choice.  Longer term we believe that bond models offer a higher risk/reward payoff than equities but we're always prepared to change course if market conditions warrant.