Monday, February 27, 2017

PONZO Updates...SPY vs GSPC (S&P500)...02.27.17

Expectations are for a rally tomorrow thru Wednesday as Trump addresses Congress and rolls out his economic plan. Either that or the market will sell off on the news.
Below are the current forecasts for 25 years of the S&P ETF SPY and the historical S&P index GSPC going back 50 years.
I though it might be instructive to add the extra 25 years of S&P price action into the mix to see if it aligned more or less with the SPY forecast.  It turns out that's pretty much the case although the GSPC is a bit more constrained in the range of the outlier scenarios and the current risk outlook.
Both models have very similar targets 18 weeks out.  Its just that the SPY outlook is considerably more volatile.