Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Emerging Markets Poised.....03.15.17

With yesterdays' Fed rate hike, the election of a mainline Dutch candidate and a surge in Treasuries the merging markets now face a test of faith. The machinations of various political entities, including the FED, have only served to further destabilize the "normal" (historically backtested) technical indicators and financial correlations that we utilize to gain a trading edge in the markets. Along with fake news, fake weather and fake sports we now enter an environment of fake (highly manipulated) markets.  This is not a reassuring time for large long term capital investments.
That said, here's the current outlook for EEM..which looked about to crater before the Dutch election and revived hopes for a "sane" outlook to the coming French vote.Per the current Ponzo forecast the STDev has been cut almost in half since our previous med-February post while the range of outlier scenarios has expanded.