Monday, February 5, 2018

SPY Blows Thru 269....02.05.18

DOW closed down 1100+ and SPY at 264...In after hours SPY is down to 261 while VXX is up another 2.  I warned about the Trap Door and that's exactly what happened....and it was a BIG door.
Early rally buyers got slammed hard into the close as each buying cycle was met with selling on rising volume.  The close was not bullish and we would expect selling to carry over into the morning session, especially given after hours action.
Our decision to favor the mean reversion model in lieu of the trend following mode turned out to be timely and saved us a few bucks of dangerous exposure as stops would have been violated at the open and no safety net.   Going forward we will favor the model with positive readings above the TrendX and Paradigm zero lines..