The XIV Conundrum...02.06.15

OK market party goers, that was a lousy Friday but we avoided being stopped out of our SPY and SSO positions and Monday's picture does have a bullish technical edge.
XIV meanwhile, which should be displaying a beta of between 4.5 and 6 has been a dismal performer of late as a quick look at the XIV premium chart reveals (% change in XIV measured against SPY).
If the bulls are going to gain any traction the XIV premium needs to get going upslope. meaning a lower VIX and a smaller intraday volatility range.  Of course for now there's nothing proactive to be done except track these indicators and apply our risk management accordingly.
The new M3 login password will go into effect Sunday night around 6 PM PST.
It has been emailed to all active subscribers.  If you haven't received yet, let me know.

New Model on Monday.....02.05.15

Thanks for taking the user survey...the results are almost unanimous with all but one user favoring LM and M3+.
As as result, starting Monday the new models will be posted and, in lieu of the morning BUZZ, there will be an overnight update on the LM and M3+ signals for the next day at 6:50 +/- AM PST just to set the tone for the day.  There will still be the 12:45 PM update before the close.
M3+ reflects considerable research and the momentum algorithms are more refined and risk tuned than the M3 version. Given the risk environment that is likely to prevail in the coming months this model should help keep us on the right side of the volatility markets.
A new M3 password will be emailed out this weekend.

Here are a few more details on M3+....... the results with and without the limit stops.
The stops have fired 12 times in the past 6 months
First, with no stops....

Then with limit stops.

Robots Skew the Game....02.04.15

After see-sawing off and on the pivot for most of the day we finally got a channel break to the upside in the last 60 minutes and it looked like we were destined for R1 or better by day's end.
THEN....the market demonstrated Murphy's Law as the robots kicked in and wiped out the day's gains in twenty minutes with over 20% of the day's total volume.  That was a freight train you did not want to be standing in front off and lots of stop orders got blown through (not LM and M3s) although we did close our positions via a late minute ALERT thereby avoiding the after hours plunge.
With the robots and algorithmic trading accounting for over 70 % of daily volume (the last 20 minutes today was probably about 90%) it often feels like the deck is stacked against the average retail trader as well as many money managers trading off non-algorithmic daily models.
Just for fun...the answer to last night's final question on JEOPARDY was '"algorithm", derived from the name of a ninth century Arab mathematician. Betcha didn't know that.

Chart courtesy of SCHWAB EDGE platform

PONZO Update...02.03.15

SInce you asked how the PONZO model for SPY reacted to the recent swoon here's the update.
The forecast is actually a little gloomier for the next 6 months than the last look around so the past 2 days may just have been a warm up for some longer term selling.  We'll take it one day at a time with the VIX down almost 9% today but still hovering in the 17-18 range.

M3+ 2 Year Details....02.02.15

For those that haven't voted please look at the Mosaic Model survey and make your selections.
http://www.mosaicm3.com/survey.html
Per several inquiries here are the results for M3+ over a 2 year timeframe.
So far the survey results have been unanimously in favor of 2 models...voting closes Wednesday.

Please Select Mosaic Models.....02.01.15

The Mosaic M3 survey for the models to be posted henceforth is now live.
Please select your favorites and SUBMIT.
Via Weebly the survey inputs are anonymous (not sure why that should even matter)
http://www.mosaicm3.com/survey.html

Friday Collapse...01.30.15

Last trading day of the month is bullish over 70% of the time, but not this month.
The majors have all gotten down to oversold levels and XIV looks particularly nasty.
Yin Yang earnings have kept volatility volatile and geo-political instability in Greece, Syria and elsewhere have not helped smooth over the uncertainty factor.