Coiling Continues...4.30.14

The last trading day of the month was punctuated with ho-hum volatility (XIV was net flat) and marginal gains in the major indices (once again).  We're basically in the same technical boat as at yesterday's close so the odds for a big move are now even more probable.

Market Coils for Break...4.29.14

The big winner today was XIV ...the rest of the market was relatively benign and ultimately ended only marginally up.  The potential for a big move that holds is increasing as the end of week approaches.
M3 likes the odds for tomorrow on XIV based on today's closing lineup and the XIV led ranking.

Choppy Trading..4.28.14

The real time SPY VIXEN in the right side panel shows today's dynamics.  Depending on the time of day we were various;y in the red or green...with a bullish surge into the close.
These days are daytraders' dreams....you've just got to be watching the screen all day and following the VIXEN crosses.
We'll still got a couple days until the end of the month and last week I suggested weakness ahead of an end of month surge so it will be interesting to see how the market plays out. What's different about April is that the last day of April and the first day of May occur in the same trading week...the first time this year such continuity has transpired...thereby relieving traders from over the weekend anxiety for the end of month/first of month bullish setup...another reason I'm watching the next few days with particular interest.....it might be a doozy.

Volatility Pop...4.26.14

Bad earnings in big name tech reversed the tentative strength we witnessed on Wednesday.
Our short term M3 ALERT fired on the 23rd and kept us in cash for Friday's swoon, thereby avoiding some nasty drawdown.
The current M3 signal has VXX in # 1 slot...a bearish indicator considering the AUTO STOP feature is turned on ...meaning VXX has gradually been building positive momentum for the past 3 days.

Despite the market crunch and recent lateral action the VEGA model (below) has been able to hold its gains and maintain an upslope equity curve.  Recent disclosures about huge inventories of US crude may make an impending reversal of XLE more likely but the energy giants are hard to trade against.

Not as Green as It Looks....4.24.14

Thank APPLE and FB for today's bump in the Qs.  Otherwise it would have been close to a net neutral day. We're kind of in the momentum doldrums here as earnings season closes, with the bulk of reports at or above analysts' estimates (for what ever that's worth) and now the market's in search of the next catalyst.  Oil continues to make new highs and utilities and bonds continue to surge.
We're still of the opinion that next week may offer better entry opportunities than Friday.

Momentum Fades...4.23.14

The SPY Vixen says it all....choppy and weak following 6 up days.
Turns out the M3 short term ALERT was correct,,,cash was the place to be.
XIV took a big hit and then recovered by the close as XLE and XLU held up well and in conjunction with suspicions posted in yesterday's link.
We may get a follow through on weakness as a setup for a first of the month run up...or???
And APPLE announced a 7:1 stock split today and an enhanced stock buyback program, possibly in an effort to stimulate retail activity.

EEM was particularly weak today and the emerging markets recent strong run may be doomed for a while pending a reversal down to previous support levels.

Approaching Overbought...4.22.14

Another green day although we had a significant fade down into the close.  And, looking at the TrendX chart in the side panel, overbought levels are fast approaching.  This cautionary note is reinforced by the position of the M3 short term ALERT.  The last time a STOP fired was April 3rd...right on target for the M3 downturn.
XLE was actually in the red for a while today although the bears are going to have a tough fight on this one if the attached article is any indication.