Saturday, April 26, 2014

Volatility Pop...4.26.14

Bad earnings in big name tech reversed the tentative strength we witnessed on Wednesday.
Our short term M3 ALERT fired on the 23rd and kept us in cash for Friday's swoon, thereby avoiding some nasty drawdown.
The current M3 signal has VXX in # 1 slot...a bearish indicator considering the AUTO STOP feature is turned on ...meaning VXX has gradually been building positive momentum for the past 3 days.

Despite the market crunch and recent lateral action the VEGA model (below) has been able to hold its gains and maintain an upslope equity curve.  Recent disclosures about huge inventories of US crude may make an impending reversal of XLE more likely but the energy giants are hard to trade against.