Silver Ponzo chart....10.29.15

This is the current Mosaic/Ponzo chart for the silver ETF (SLV).  I'll run the longer term silver index through Ponzo tomorrow to comopare with the ETF signal.  Meanwhile, the dip in SLV today offered an opportunity to put on this credit spread with a much improved risk reward profile...with net credit up to .10 from yesterday's .07 and a lower breakeven point. .. something to consider.

A Silver Credit Spread....10.28.15

OK>>>that was a crazy market today as SPY swung from the Pivot to R3 to the pivot and then back to R3.  Typical wild FED day with, as almost 100% guaranteed, the FED standing pat. Now we get to revisit the excitement frenzy in December where the consensus odds for a rate hike are about 30%.
Meanwhile, as promised, here's a credit spread, this time puts, for the silver ETF...SLV.  Lots of action on the metals lately with a consensus BUY signal from the metrics panel which we'll look at a little closer tomorrow. This looks like a very high probability trade that expires on November 13th. so not a lot of time exposure.

SPY Ponzo Update still negative for the year....10.27.15

After hours Apple reported cheery results but the stock only popped 50 cents so far so the enthusiasm is muted to say the least.  Tomorrow is another FED day but the Fed fund consensus for a potential rate uptick is only 6% so the market's pretty written this one off.
SPY Ponzo is still negative for the year and last week's credit spread is alive and well.
Tomorrow we will post this week's credit spread idea.

Waiting on APPLE and BABA......10.26.15

Volume was only 50% normal today and a little pullback was expected after Friday's surge. Eyes are on Apple and BABA earnings out tomorrow.  Apple was downgraded today and lost almost 3%  but if earnings are strong all will be forgiven.  BABA was on a tear today, far outpacing the FXI China index and if earnings come in above consensus it could become a real runner with a lot of upside potential.  Here's the closing view from M3.

  

VDX Updates..Overbought but bullish...10.25.15

This week's VDX updates display the overbought status of SPY and FXI (to a lesser degree). XLU has pulled back from its extreme overbought status and it now almost neutral from a technical standpoint. Note the bullish divergence of the VDI+ and VDI- in the SPY and FXI charts.
And, just because SPY is overbought doesn't mean we can't revisit previous highs before any meaningful pullback. The surge has been all about earnings and with APPLE coming out next week we may see another quick leg up despite tepid forecasts from many analysts. Meanwhile, bullish action by the European central bank and the Bank of China have pushed EFA and FXI into new short term highs.  The mood on the street is clearly bullish and the FED's meeting on Wednesday is expected to produce no rate uptick and hence another bullish driver. Then we have the end of the month usual pop and the move into the 5 historically strongest months of the year.
I have been woefully under invested for much of this rally, preferring a more market neutral stance.
The good news is the markets are always presenting new opportunities. We just have to pounce on them at the appropriate time.

The XLU/AGG 1 & 2 Week Low results....10.22.15

While we wait for the afterhours blowup today from MSFT and GOOG earnings here's a sleeper setup for XLU and AGG using our 1 and 2 week low setups that buy the pullbacks and hold until stopped out or rotated out in subsequent weeks. The real benefit of these systems is the extremely low drawdown compared to a buy and hold strategy. The equity curves are rather attractive also.
It may appear surprising to be able to pull this type of risk/reward profile out of something as boring as the utility sector but the results speak for themselves.

Updates of the 1 and 2 week pullback systems....10.21.15

Here's what the 1 and 2 week pullback systems look like for this week as of Monday's close.  These samples use only SPY and AGG as inputs but we'll look at several other permutations tomorrow if time permits.  We're just monitoring these setups for now in the face on on-going volatile flux..  Keep in mind these are mean reversion systems, not momentum based and our current choppy markets make the signals somewhat suspect.  Note that both systems favor SPY for this week (through Monday's close).