Sunday, October 25, 2015

VDX Updates..Overbought but bullish...10.25.15

This week's VDX updates display the overbought status of SPY and FXI (to a lesser degree). XLU has pulled back from its extreme overbought status and it now almost neutral from a technical standpoint. Note the bullish divergence of the VDI+ and VDI- in the SPY and FXI charts.
And, just because SPY is overbought doesn't mean we can't revisit previous highs before any meaningful pullback. The surge has been all about earnings and with APPLE coming out next week we may see another quick leg up despite tepid forecasts from many analysts. Meanwhile, bullish action by the European central bank and the Bank of China have pushed EFA and FXI into new short term highs.  The mood on the street is clearly bullish and the FED's meeting on Wednesday is expected to produce no rate uptick and hence another bullish driver. Then we have the end of the month usual pop and the move into the 5 historically strongest months of the year.
I have been woefully under invested for much of this rally, preferring a more market neutral stance.
The good news is the markets are always presenting new opportunities. We just have to pounce on them at the appropriate time.