Saturday, July 21, 2012

S 7.21.12

We're now in a HOLD mode until we see how the SpreadX and TrendX resolve.  Technically we're in an overbought position for the portfolio and the best course of action is to wait and see if a better entry sets up.  AGAIN....these indicators do not relate to the larger market indices, but are programmed to deliver signals for new capital infusions into the portfolio.  On a 5 day basis both S and the RM version are running ahead of SPY, reflecting their risk control skills. 
On the ranking scale bonds have moved back to slots 1 and 2, indicating the need for a "risk on" approach to the major markets.  Meanwhile the RM model maintains ON, showing the model momentum is continuing to accelerate while the SPY falters.  the right hand charts, especially the top short term version illustrate the different in performance.  The flat portion of the RM (red line) chart reflects periods when RM was in an OUT mode and the portfolio was in cash.  Note what happened to the SPY during this same period.  We didn't lose much opportunity cost in the process and if the equity markets had tanked at that point cash was the place to be.
Monday we'll make some portfolio adjustments that should insulate the portfolio even further against drawdown risk and later in the week the TradeStation performance reports will be available for the Delta Band system (via email request.)