Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Poaching the Bond Cycle.....3.25.14

Here's the last word on TLT vs. TBT (20 year treasuries vs its ultra inverse).  Despite all the news dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties it turns out that once treasuries find a support resistance channel prices tend to behave in a rather predictable manner.  This doesn't mean we cast aside our money management stops...those stay in place....what it means is that once we identify these S/R cycles the odds for making money increase substantially.
Below are the daily charts for TLT and TBT. 
TLT has a intraday range of about 1%, TBT, because its an ultra (x2) has a daily range of about 2%. (Just for reference SPY has a daily range of about 1.3%).

Following the 2 prices charts is the M3 setup...just 2 inputs.
Then the M3 pairs analysis of the TLT/TBT skew. 
The red lines point to the zero line crosses that signaled the best odds for long TLT trades and/or short TBT trades.
So far the skew indicator has provided a good gauge of TLT momentum.  Just keep in mind that some factor will inevitably break the cycle (more tapering?).  When that time comes all bets are off until a new support/resistance channel is formed.