Saturday, March 29, 2014

QQQ and XLF Remain Weak...3.29.14

Last day of the month trading looked encouraging for the bulls at the open but as the day wore on much of the gains were loss. 
At one point in the day the Qs were actually in the red and XLF was also weak relative to SPY.
The most optimistic factor now in evidence is the sudden surge in XIV (= reduced volatility)...a scenario we've been anticipating for several months.

XLE (energy sector) was at new highs...possible reasons include new worries about Russian incursion into the Ukraine, the impending summer driving season price escalation and general speculation about  improvements in emerging market economies...which have suddenly become hot (EEM and SCHE).
Despite the decision to release oil reserve inventories in an attempt to ease demand speculation the result appeared to be zero.  There may have also been some short covering at work pushing XLE higher as it has now broken above long term overhead resistance (although marginally so).