Thursday, June 12, 2014

Happy in Cash...6.12.14

A timely switch in yesterday's M3's ranking to cash kept us out of today's carnage.
Rather amazingly SPY has gone from an RSI2 reading of 100 to 7.5 in 2 days!!!
That's a dramatic change of relative strength.
Weak retail sales reports, increased jobless claims and increased business inventories all contributed to the rise in uncertainty about he economy and the President's comments about needing to do something about the deteriorating political climate in Iraq probably provided the icing on the cake as nobody wants to relive the cost in dollars and lives that the decade long foray there cost us the last time.

Below is a version of the 6 ETF  BETA model  XIX,SSO.SPY.SH.SDS,VXX which covers the full beta spectrum of SPY from uber bullish to uber bearish. By looking at a VIXEN type comparison of current up versus down pressures its easier (for me) to appreciate the magnitude of market momentum as well as the relative alignment of + and - beta factors in the various SPY derivatives (the other 5 ETFs).
The first chart is daily bars from Jan 2014, the second a more close up 10 minute bar view of the last 4 days.