Saturday, February 28, 2015

Profiles in Uncertainty..02.28.15

Things may be about to get volatile if the new Ponzo risk profile of the SPY is any indication.
Regulars know I'm very risk adverse and the Mosaic models have done a great job of minimizing drawdowns while still keeping ahead of the S&P so far.
A good friend of mine who advises many hedge funds and is the recognized guru on target date funds is now projecting a 20% pullback in the S&P sometime this year. Just keep it in mind.
I keep harping about capital preservation and I firmly believe we may be in for a rocky ride this year...sooner or later.  Here's a recent clip from the President of the NAAIM....National Association of Active Investment Managers...its members are arguably some of the smartest guys in the room with billions and billions under active (as opposed to passive) management.
Then go grab a stiff drink and look at the Ponzo forecast below....we have not seen this level of risk divergence in the model for the 2 years I have been tracking it.