Wednesday, January 13, 2016

TLT Mo Ponzo Update...01.13.16

This week's TLT update shows a deteriorating forecast relative to last week.(dotted bar lines) ....similar to what we saw with the SPY chart yesterday but more than a bit odd since we would normally expect a falling SPY to be complemented with a rising TLT (20 year T bonds).
The error percentages are fairly high on these forecast scenarios which in turn leads us to be suspicious of their reliability. The lowest error forecast (orange line) is bullish, as is the best fit line, BUT NOT the consensus average line.