The VIX forecast is moderately elevated from last week also but we're not seeing the wild outlier scenarios like those in November and December. There is currently massive short interest on the VIX options, reflecting an optimistic tone at least short term, but a few bad earnings reports or a geo-political ripple could kick the HFTs into a selling mode and then all bets are off.
TLT has stabilized around the 121 level and despite historic short interest is maintaining some price stability as the yield curve flattens. However, just like the VIX, be prepared for the unexpected.
The FED is not expected to make another move until June and traders may be betting on that timeline.
