Sunday, July 30, 2017

Ponzo Updates and Trader's Outlook for SPY, QQQ & TLT.......07.31.17

SPY and QQ finished the week only pennies off the previous week's close while TLT pulled back 2%.  The surprising  forecast this week is the Qs, which had been bullish, but which has now become almost hyperbolic in outlook.  While FANG and its outliers have continued to gain momentum recently this outlook looks like some kind of statistical anomaly rather than a realistic scenario in the next 5 months.  Of course these are just probability scenarios based on previous historical patterns and given the current frothy levels of the markets may not reflect likely outcomes but, it does provide some food for thought.
Trader's Outlook is net neutral for next week.....reflecting the longer term forecast for TLT which looks ripe for iron condor & butterfly positions..