This week's Ponzo forecasts reveal a significant risk increase for SPY and QQQ while the prospects for TLT, which Ponzo turned bullish on last week, now show the greatest potential for longer term gains. Summer months are historically weak performer, although that hasn't been the case in recent years. As the yield curve flattens once again and macro economic fundamentals begin to deteriorate the possibilities for treasuries and composite bond ETFs like AGG look increasingly attractive.
The Trader's Outlook is modestly bullish as we roll into earnings season and increased expectations.
Trading volume has been running about 50-70% historical levels and periodic flash crashes in oil, the Euro, the dollar and various select stocks suggest volatility surges may confound stop orders as liquidity becomes thin and spreads widen.
It's hard to find any good risk/reward scenarios these days.