Earnings Catalyze Bounce...10.17.14

Good earnings from GE and UNH helped propel the markets higher.  There were a few waves of selling mid session but the NYAD closed at a bullish 2.00 and the VIX tumbled over 12%.
Monday we'll see how much of today's action was short covering driven as APPLE and IBM report.
 
The SPY Vixen chart below doesn't really reflect the scale of today's 263 point (1.6%) DOW move...that's because the range moves over the past few days have been so far above normal.
The TrendX chart on the right side panel now looks optimistic for SPY....just keep those earnings coming in upbeat...or else..
M3 goes live this weekend.
Subscribers will receive the login password via email before the Monday open.

A Pause, Maybe a Bottom....10.16.14

The markets started out ugly with the NYAD at .08, the lowest level in 8 months and usually a level associated with exhaustion selling...unless we're in a bear market and then all bets are off.
The SPY was struggling to make up ground today and 10 minutes pre-close it was in the green.  It didn't hold and there was a usual mini-selloff in the last 30 minutes.....although the NYAD was actually rising.
All sorts of technical conflicts in the current market milieu make forecasting a tough game.  For now we'll just follow the M3 signals...VXX was stopped out yesterday at 41.90 and we're now in cash although the M3 signal is bearish.  A lot of earnings tomorrow before the bell, including GE.  Those reports will likely set the tone for the day and perhaps into next week.

Second Trap Door Opens...10.15.14

Dow down 400, VIX up 34%...that was the scenario in early going this morning.  NOW everyone's worried about Ebola? No faith in the CDC?  Or maybe the rubber finally hit the road for the risk intolerant as volume ballooned and the advance /decline line retreated to the sub teen levels.

There was considerable recovery into the close although all the major indices closed in the red.
Is the worst over?  I suspect the slew of upcoming earnings reports may answer that question.
Meanwhile, the M3 site has just about been revamped to reflect the 6 input Long/short format and we're about to go active this weekend after some final testing.  It was a wild ride with VXX today (described on the M3 site update today) and we've managed to book some nice gains with little risk.

A Little Recovery....10.14.14

We had a little relief from the selling although oil continues to slide.
Looking at the TrendX chart in the right side panel shows where we are vis-a-vis critical support. Technically the next leg should be up and there haven't been a lot of earnings report to derail that prognosis.  That being said....we could could go anywhere at this point and once the markets get rolling we'll either see a return to SPY 200 or a collapse to the sub 180 levels....Sorry, not much help at this point.
M3 did a great job to catching the Monday 10% pump in VXX and hit the target exit stop today at 39.36, so the model is back in cash.
We continue to see an afternoon high volume accelerating meltdown in the markets and until that subsides the trend will remain in a negative mood. One day at a time and watch the stops.

Another Leg Down...10.13.14

We did get a VXX confirmation buy signal this morning  on M3 and ended up entering at Friday's closing price.  The VXX subsequently rose over 10% today as SPY broke technical support at 190 and picked up downside momentum into the close.  The SPY/SH Vixen chart says it all (below).
The VIX was up 9% 15 minutes before the close today and then literally melted up an amazing 7+% in the last 12 minutes to ultimately close up almost 17% for the day.
We're in a no-man's land technically right now although I'm looking for a possible reversal around SPY 185...whether that will hold is anybody's guess.  M3 has VXX in #1 slot.

Another Red Day....10.10.14

Another Red Day.

Yikes! - Part 2....10.9.14

Yesterday happy face became a real sour puss today as the Dow tumbled 334 points and the VIX rose 24% reaching the highest level since February.  Worries over instability in the Eurozone were supposedly the catalyst for the selloff and XLE took a particularly big hit.
The Beta model has been merged into M3 to produce a new M3 platform that is a true Long/Short model. Today's update in the new format is posted on the M3 site, Login Tab.
The lack of a Long signal yesterday turned out to be a good thing today and...no surprise...the model is remaining in cash for tomorrow.
M3 site tabs will also be updated in the upcoming week or so to reflect the new 6 ETF/ETN mix.