Sunday, July 28, 2013

X Sectors in Cash...7.28.13

We're still seeing a pullback in the X sector ETFs and despite Friday's open to close rally the charts don't look particularly bullish at this point.
XLK is stuck in slot 11 while XLV and XLF jockey for the top 2 slots.

Given the position of the P6 and the RSQ the next move we would typically expect is a cross, which means continued weakness in the equities markets.

HOWEVER, we are approaching the first of the month, a date that has shown bullish behavior over 70 % of the time for the past 2 years so that performance metric needs to be considered.
One possible scenario....a continued fade down into Tuesday and then a rally on Wednesday and Thursday.
This pattern would support the 'Turnaround Tuesday" studies that suggest Tuesday is the most likely day of the week for short term trend reversals.

Note how volatility in both SPy and the top 2 sort have compressed over the past month.
The implication is that we are due for a big move...which direction remains to be seen.

Click once on chart to clarify.