Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Advance/Decline Line is the Key...8.28.13

Here's a look at the current NYAD (NYSE advance/decline line) that I've mentioned many times before.  It really is key in understanding underlying market momentum and, of course, it can rise like a rocket or plummet like a stone based on news or rumors.

Yesterday's NYAD was just plain dismal and the surprising thing is that it only dropped to the .20 levels.  Real selling is characterized by readings below .10 and such events occur on about 1% of trading days.
After 2 hours in today we're seeing an attempt at a rally, although volume remains low as everyone waits to see what the other guy is going to do.

Note what may be a current topping in the NYAD chart.  Although the argument can be made that selling days such as yesterday are really buying opportunities a similar argument can be made that yesterdays' lows will be tested again before a short term bottom is put in place...recall the "hairy bottom" pattern previously discussed.

In our Hybrid model silver is showing some weakness while gold continues to run.