Wednesday, August 14, 2013

No Bullish Confirmation...8.14.13 was NOT the bullish confirmation day we were looking for.  As earnings season winds down there are a few nasty surprises that have punished the otherwise upbeat mood...such as CSCO.

As in previous times of accelerating volatility this has become a market of stocks, not indices and the collateral damage from that milieu is a general stagnation in ETFs...which are comprised of multiple stocks.

Of note, we did get a nice move in gold and silver over the past 2 days and the dollar (UUP) looks poised to make another 10% move to the cycle top...just as FXE (the Euro) looks poised to retest the previous cycle lows. Looking at the SPY TrendX and considering where we are (mid-month, option expiration near), the odds favor a continued slide and we again must suggest CASH even though the P6 is marginally upslope.

Bonds and utilities (XLU) are particularly stagnant as investors try to game the FED's next move.
Surprised that QQQ is in the momentum top 2?  Thank AAPL,which has enjoyed a nice ride through 500 and which comprises 20% of the QQQ and XLK.  Without AAPL's support the Qs position would be much closer to a # 5 or 6 rank.   This situation emphasizes my previous comment on a market of stocks.